Saturday, 28 January 2017

January 28, 2017 – Weeken Market Comment

January 28, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

After weeks of close calls, the Dow made history on Wednesday by blowing past that key level for the first time ever. The Dow climbed 156 points to 20,069 and was joined in record territory by the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.  The historic milestone leaves the Dow up more than 1,700 points since President Donald Trump's victory in November. The achievement is evidence of how optimistic investors have become about the prospects for the U.S. economy.

Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
!
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Wow breadth is still very strong. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
The big march forward, 12 bricks up !

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is less happy. But a day or two does not make a trend. Yes despite sideways market the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 69% of stocks are above their 50 day MA,  down a tad from last week when it was 71%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.


301 NASDAQ Summation
Looks like it might get more stable.  

303 Aggressive Defensive
Peaking might be getting defensive soon.. 

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer deflating? neutral 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Canada perks up on oil and gold. World trade looks better with British American trade deal talk.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting
According to theAtlas.com Americans are importing more veggies. You could hope this just means there is an increase in salad consumption, but I think it has more to do with less people interested in farming. As global standards of living increase the appeal of farming decreases. Also with less migrant labour in the US farming basic commodities becomes impractical. 


Time Crystals

Check out this amazing discovery of a new kind of matter, in ScienceAlert.


What Works Now

Short Bonds, the TBT ETF is an easy way to short US treasuries. 



What I Think

So once again despite record low VIX readings and all the rest the market roared ahead with the DOW in new record territory. If you were following what I did last week you stayed long because this is a bull market. 

So it is DOW 20,000 and the white house has a new resident. Many are wondering if there is any news next to carry this market. 


So I am now a week in Belize, and as I sip coffee at my desk I wonder should I write more about the markets or go enjoy the sun..... see ya next week :)






You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Sunday, 22 January 2017

January 21, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

January 21, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Well as you know I could not get enough bandwidth last week to post my comments but nothing much happened anyway. The market is in a sideways trading range. However next week might be much more interesting...



Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Breadth is still with us, don't panic yet. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Hey an uptick in industrial production.  That is good news.

115 Renko
End of the big march forward, 12 bircks up and one new black brick retreat. BEARISH!

203 OBV
OBV (red line) is happy. Yes despite sidways market the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down.... For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish.


211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 71% of stocks are above their 50day MA,  down from last week when it was 77%.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
ALERT: Nasdaq breath decline... don't panic but this is not a good sign. Notice the green is way below red, as only the top hot stocks are still in play. 

303 Aggressive Defensive
Sideways. 

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds down. Consumer deflating? neutral 

307 Bond Direction
Bonds hit moving average and die. Goldfinger say: NO Mr. Bond I expect you to Die. 

309 Sectors
Consumer and Nasdaq try to run, banks stall.

311 Nations
Canada perks up on oil and gold.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting
The number of shorts on the VIX is near a record. When everyone bets on one crowded trade that is generaly trouble. In this case the pros are betting on an ever rising stock market. This bull run is 8 years long, so it is a bit concerning when no one sees any chance of it ending. 



What Works Now

Gold



What I Think

Well I think the Trump rally has run its course and consloidation shows we are ready for a rest. However, the old axiom "Buy the roumor, sell the news" comes to mind and now that Mr. Trump is the new "leader of the free world" I expect Monday to be profit taking time. 

You will note only one red ! this week and it is the Nasdaq breadth... this can be a way early signal so dont panic, but it is concerning when money moves to defense and that is what this graph signals. Also notice gold is accumulating. 

However, we are in a bull market, and always expect bullish outcomes. That means as we have for weeks, be defensive not short or flat. Raise stops, sell your high flyers, be conservative. 



You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Friday, 6 January 2017

January 07, 2017 – Weekend Market Comment

January 07, 2017 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) tumbled on Thursday, dropping more than 8 basis points to close at 2.37% - its lowest daily close since December 7th's 2.35% finish.  The sudden interest in treasuries could have been the result of a weaker-than-expected monthly ADP employment report, or perhaps the awful retail news from both Kohls (KSS) and Macy's (M).  Then come Friday the market roared ahead in the final hours - the lesson here, bull market expect bullish outcomes.


Here is what our charts say:






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red)  the dark green 50 day average is in a firm uptrend.  NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), we might be at the end of the uptrend, a very long term uptrend.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.

103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Breadth is still with us, don't panic yet. Nothing but strength. 

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Beginning to be disturbing -- manufacturing is lagging.  Could this be the first canary in a coal mine signal?

115 Renko
Market is strong lucky 12 white bricks! You seldom see a run this long, but who knows how far this bull can run. Notice how it is obvious on a Renko chart. SUPER BULLISH!
!
203 OBV
OBV (red line) is happy. Yes despite year end profit taking the big boys are still on board. Bullish!
!
207 VIX
Fear is way down... Notice the last two weeks of September, when the bears got trounced by Trump. For now Bullish but overdone.

209 VIX Evaluator
Very much bullish. 2016 was a mostly up market years.

!
211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now about 81% of stocks are above their 50day MA, way up from last week when it was 66%. Bullish.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. TRIX says green light, could be a green arrow soon.

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
Nasdaq breadth stalls.

303 Aggressive Defensive
Very Aggressive. Bullish upswing for new year.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds up. Consumer deflating? Bearish

307 Bond Direction
Bonds look better.
!
309 Sectors
Ahh financials fade defensives lead and tech too? Bizzar.

311 Nations
Third world perks up.

313 Major sectors
Canada perks up.. more safe-haven plays and good news in gold, silver, oil and coal.

! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.



What I Find Interesting
Why sugar is killing you:



 

What Works Now

I have been very worried about US manufacturing, and happy to see a good run on an auto stock since last fall. Fiat Chrysler (Ticker:FCAU)




A Reader Asked
A reader of this blog told me they really don't want to read all this stuff, please pick out a few stocks for them. My only advise to others is simple, only use money you can risk and purchase broad market indexes like the S & P 500 (Ticker:SPY) when the bull bear lines say it is a bull market, sell when it is not.  Outside of that, I have no targeted advice for anyone


I don't want to manage your money, I am busy managing mine. If I ever want to be a money manager there is a few very generous offers, at a few major investment banks in Toronto, New York and London that I can take anytime. Unlike this person, they will pay very well for my advice. I also know I could start a hedge fund and listen to clients belly ache on months that I miss my performance, or run like rats every downturn, but I don't need the grief. This blog is not advise, it is my own market analysis for me, read the first paragraph above You are welcome to look here and see what I do, otherwise, I just really don't care. 

If you are busy, or don't understand this stuff, or just want someone to manage your money -- there are rafts of these people and they are not hard to find, go talk to them.



What I Think
Well like I said last week, it looked a lot like tax selling end of year and the bull would continue once the year flipped over. So it goes. But I also said this might well be the last year of the bull, the big factor will be China, I am sure you all read my post on China and what the issue is. 


2016 was a near record year for my portfolio performance, I now need to spend a bit of that to help the global economy. I am in Cuba next weekend, as I work my way to my winter home in Belize.  I expect to have not enough internet connectivity to post next week... you are on you own. 





You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.


Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here