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Showing posts from February, 2016

February 29, 2016 – Market Comment

February 29, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/.  For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).


Sorry I am late this week, as you can see it is leap year day Monday, but when you live on a tropical island sometimes friends and a beer on the beach take priority.





CLICK HERE: To See the 100 and 200 series charts


101 Bull Bear Bear market (red over dark green). The light green line has come a long way up, and the dark green line is beginning to turn up, perhaps the end of this sell off. Bear Market = Bearish outcomes.
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces In the right side highlight we see green is below yellow. Breadth issues are drying up, the sell off may be over.
105 Non Farm Payroll Lots of jobs! But this is a lagging indicator.
107 Ind…

February 20, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

February 20, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/.  For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The keys to the sustainability of the recent rally will be twofold:  (1) will there be enough buying pressure to clear key resistance levels as they're approached and tested? and (2) will there be enough rotation to aggressive areas of the market to confirm breakout attempts? I stick with my original idea that this is a dead cat bounce. Bear markets expect bearish outcomes.
CLICK HERE: To See the 100 and 200 series charts


101 Bull Bear Bear market (red over dark green). The light green line is rounding signalling the top of a “dead cat bounce”. Bear Market = Bearish outcomes.
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces In the right side highlight w…

February 13, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

February13, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/.  For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The rout in the markets I have been warning about since last August continues with a small relief rally Friday.
Gold hit a 52 week high in trading yesterday, marking the first time since 2011 (5 long years ago...).

Momentum shifted positive Friday on a 2% plus rally, not surprising. We are at the limits in further downside without getting terribly oversold. Bear market rallies are not for the faint of heart as they generally don't last long, so even if price can rally, internal weakness will continue to put downward pressure on price. While this means that momentum has shifted positive, it is likely going to be short-lived based on the indic…

February 6, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

February6, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/.  For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

The Market sold off hard on Friday,  the Nasdaq was the biggest loser on the day... the biggest single-day drop since August's Black Monday plunge... (Nasdaq now lowest close since Oct 2014). The USDollar Index crashed by the most since June 2009 this week (despite a bounce today) led by JPY strength (biggest week since Oct 2008!). Gold's best 3-week gain in over a year to near 4-month highs and Silver's best 3-week run since May 2015. 


Now if you follow my posts you saw this coming a long time ago in the charts, but oddly the press says Friday's sell off was due to a week jobs number. Well... yes in a recession, industrial producti…