Monday, 1 July 2013


In life you get what you pay for and since this blog is free you should have a good idea what the information here is worth. I write this blog in order to think through my own ideas on investment that are good for me. I use the blog to comunicate to my friends and family who want to see what I am up to.  I also use this as a soapbox to voice my opinion on a wide range of subjects. I date the material I place here as a discipline to see when I am right and wrong about my trading. If you go back through my past postings you will find that I am often wrong.

This is a marketplace, a place where people take sides, stating their belief on the future outcomes. The prices you see each day quoted for a stock, bond option even houses etc. are arrived at by many people betting real money. Like all markets, whatever price they arrive at is the right price – for that moment. In order to succeed at this game you must be better at this than most people. After all, like Poker, it is the strong hands that take profits from the weaker hands.  There is no way to trade without having a bit of arrogance, hubris and pig headedness. The best traders and lion tamers, have all made costly mistakes always proceed with great cautions and respect, they have a backup plan and they no how fast things can turn on them.

I am not your advisor I am a speculator. Of course I own many of investment mentioned here. I also talk about equities I am consideirng but have not purchased. I don't "pump my book", there are so few readers of this blog I could say anything and it would not move the price one bit.

The ideas you read here may have been proven wrong in just a few hours of trading. What looks like a great buy on Sunday turns into a quick stop loss all courtesy of Monday’s headline news. Don't ever assume that what I wrote before is how I feel now.

What I am saying is if you are stupid enough to trade based on some random blog from god knows who, you deserve what you get.

Where Do You Get This Information?
A lot of it comes from the some 20+ hours a week I spend digesting the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Globe and Mail, the Financial Post, the Financial Times, Yahoo, Fortune, CNBC (no not Jim Cramer), Bloombreg, the Economist Magazine, 10 good other blogs, on line conversations with traders,  tons of time on, I read the commitment of traders reports from the CFTC. I run some automated stock screens. Of course I trade live during the day looking for behaviour changes.

From there I develop a thesis, and begin to focus on the data that supports that thesis listen less and less to dissenting opinions as I make up my mind. I then often comb the web for other data that supports my thinking.

About Style
You might have noticed that I use some very basic graphs averaged line graphs where possible.  I use the simple format because one of my friends hates the complex stuff -- he does not even like candlestick charts. No I don’t do my analysis from those simple graphs, in fact I often will look at 6 different layouts of the same equity. On my more advanced charts are many of the fancy squiggles, ocilators, channels, meta data but I always take one last simple look at each equity in “blog simple mode” and I often find that what the fancy graphs tell me is also clear in the simple chart too. That’s a good sign. Oddly I find it adds to the discipline to simplify.

And now a word from the lawyers.
Information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information on products and services. I write this blog for my own interests and there has been no consideration here of your specific situation. There is no consideration here for your size of portfolio your age or your future needs. Ideas here may involve too much or not enough risk for readers specific situation.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.

Information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Hyperlinks on this website are provided as a convenience and we disclaim any responsibility for information, services or products found on websites linked hereto.

Market reaction and prices are never fully perceivable. Events will not go completely as planned. The reader is cautioned to use prudent money management, reasonable stop loss strategies and proper risk control.

Stock and bond values fluctuate in price so the value of your investment can go down depending on market conditions. Investing entails specific risks relating to liquidity, leverage and credit that may reduce returns and/or increase volatility.

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no reader should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.

Trading involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whethertrading and markets are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading. Their is a real risk you can lose all of your investment capital.