Monday, 29 August 2016

August 27, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

August 27, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Ho hum it is summer and the market on almost no volume is going nowhere. Look at this closeup of the recent market action:


So as you can see we are going no place. Friday's action was a little extream. 

By the way, I am in Europe visting friends and doing some investment banking work in London, so this and the next 4 market comments are likly to be short and late. Also I am learning to edit this work on a tablet and there will be some formating issues for sure. 








101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply, but pulling back in last few days. Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Nothing but positive. In the right side highlight we see green is above is below yellow. Really positive.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Bullish

115 Renko
Nothing but strength.
203 OBV
OBV is still with market, but what a day Friday. Bullish.
 !
207 VIX
VIX at a critical point, looks overdone but if it does not correct here could be wild ride next week. 

209 VIX Evaluator
Nothing but strength. But could this be a flatting for a turn?

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 59% stocks are above their 50day MA, slightly down from last week 68%. Weaker.
 !

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. Notice the trix converge... danger?
flat

!
301 NASDAQ Summation
NASDAQ is near record highs but as you can see the breadth is deteriorating.

303 Aggressive Defensive
First sign of troubles as defencives regain a lead.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds flat, consumer flat, not great.

307 Bond Direction
Strength in bonds but trend might break

309 Sectors
Its all about tech as the NASDAQ sweeps ahead. Expect NASDAQ stocks to loose steam soon.

311 Nations
International has small down tick after steady gains as U.S. market looks overbought.

313 Major sectors
U.S. equities are the only game in town.


! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting

Last week the Economist Magazine ran a cover page article on how the U.S. many have yet another housing fiancial cisies in the offing. Click Here to Read

There is over 26 trillion of debt in the U.S.fiancail system related to mortgages. Thats bigger than the whole U.S. stock market system. While U.S. banks have tightend standards and are better capitalized there has been a move toward lower level unregulated broker mortgages that are backed by even shakier institutons than in the last mess. 


What Works Now
Well what has been working is high risk investing, small stock, technology companies, but trees don't grow to the sky and for most readers I would sugest this might be a good time to take some profits. 


What I Think
Last week I said, It is true things are moving a bit sideways after a strong run and I would have a long look at the green arrow chart, notice the trix converging? This might be the end of the summer rally? 

This week that trend continued. However this still is a very strong bull market, and it is hard to say if we are seeing  healthy pull back from some profit taking or a full scale exit before the dangerous early fall period. Of course that is the rub, buying opertunity or time to get lighter? I am going to wait and see, but no big risky bets right now. 






You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.

Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Saturday, 20 August 2016

August 20, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

August 20, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).
It is the 200th Market Comment, can you believe I have posted the same 18 charts now for almost about 4 years and you have been reading them?







101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
 !
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Nothing but positive. In the right side highlight we see green is above is below yellow. Really positive.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Bullish

115 Renko
Nothing but strength.
 !
203 OBV
OBV is still with market. Bullish.
 !
207 VIX
VIX should bounce about this red line for a while but very bullish for now, could even head in to a new range. WOW

209 VIX Evaluator
Nothing but strength.

211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 68.6% stocks are above their 50day MA, slightly down from last week 71%. Strength.
 !

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow. Notice the trix converge... danger?
flat


301 NASDAQ Summation
After a little pause, nothing but strength here. 

303 Aggressive Defensive
First sign of troubles as defensive regain a lead.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds flat, but consumer has small uptick Bullish.

307 Bond Direction
Strength in bonds but trend might break

309 Sectors
Its all about tech as the Nasdaq sweeps ahead. Expect Nasdaq stocks to loose steam soon.

311 Nations
International has small down tick after steady gains as U.S. market looks overbought.

313 Major sectors
U.S. equities are the only game in town.


! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting


Gordon Chang in World Affairs Journal has really hit the nail on the head with his insightful post China's Triple Bubble.

  • Beijing’s official National Bureau of Statistics appears to be posting fantasy numbers.
  •  Credit creation during the just-completed quarter was more than twice that in the previous quarter

What Works Now

Copart, Inc., headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is a provider of online vehicle auction and remarketing services. The Company provides vehicle suppliers, insurance companies, with a range of services to process and sell salvage vehicles over the Internet through the Company's Virtual Bidding Second Generation Internet auction-style sales technology.


Copart the leader in auto recycler and auction-services provider turned in double-digit revenue and earnings growth. This makes two quarters in a row of solid revenue growth after a sales stall in late-2014 through 2015. Management doesn't appear ready to rest on this rebound, with the company continuing to invest in more capacity.




Square
The maker of those super popular small business pointment of sale system. If you are wishing you bought Facebook at $35 this is your chance to get in, buy and hold this for a few years and hope for 10 to 1. Click here for chart




What I Think
Bull rages on. Except for a starting rotation in the aggressive defensive chart all looks very strong. At best you might talk about overbought, but that can go on a long time. 

It is true things are moving a bit sideways after a strong run and I would have a long look at the green arrow chart, notice the trix converging? This might be the end of the summer rally?






You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.

Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Saturday, 13 August 2016

August 13, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

August 13, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Well the summer rally continues with a much needed small pull back Friday. 






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
 !
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Nothing but positive. In the right side highlight we see green is above is below yellow. Really positive.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Bullish

115 Renko
Nothing but strength.
 !
203 OBV
OBV is still with market. Bullish.
 !
207 VIX
VIX should bounce about this red line for a while but very bullish for now, could even head in to a new range.

209 VIX Evaluator
Nothing but strength.
 !
211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 71% stocks are above their 50day MA, slightly down from last week 73.4%. Strength.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow.
flat


301 NASDAQ Summation
After a little pause, nothing but strength here. 

303 Aggressive Defensive
First sign of troubles as defensive regain a lead.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds flat, but consumer has small uptick Bullish.

307 Bond Direction
Strength in bonds but trend might break

309 Sectors
Its all about tech as the Nasdaq sweeps ahead.

311 Nations
International has small down tick after steady gains as U.S. market looks overbought.

313 Major sectors
U.S. equities are the only game in town.


! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.







What Works Now

New Vista Energy on the TSX exchange...






What I Think

Bull rages on. Except for a starting rotation in the aggressive defensive chart all looks very strong. At best you might talk about overbought, but that can go on a long time. 

Canada is looking stronger even as the emerging markets corrected ever so slightly this week. Wednesday oil surge 6% as the bottom looks to be in for now.





You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.

Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.


Read My Disclaimer Here

Sunday, 7 August 2016

August 06, 2016 – Weekend Market Comment

August 06, 2016 – Welcome to my weekend market comment, an analysis tool I use in my own portfolio decisions, published free to the web every weekend before the New York opening bell. You can read the latest version each week by bookmarking http://cme4pif.blogspot.ca/. For full details read my disclaimer (link at the bottom of this page).

Well the Market did really well this week. Financial stocks did well, breaking through its spring high to reach the highest level this year.  Of all the sectors in the market, financials are the most sensitive to the direction of interest rates. Their upside breakout appears to reinforce the view that bond yields have bottomed, and that bond prices have peaked. The three financial groups that benefit the most from from rising yields are banks, brokers, and life insurers. Not surprisingly, those three groups are leading the XLF ETF higher.






101 Bull Bear
Bull market (dark green over red) and now the short term (light green) is up sharply. NOTICE THE SLOPE (second window), this could be part of a long term up trend, which might pull back here.  Bull market -- expect bullish outcomes.
 !
103 NYSE High Low Market Forces
Nothing but positive. In the right side highlight we see green is above is below yellow. Really positive.

105 Non Farm Payroll
Lots of jobs! But beware this is lagging indicator. The smart money is gone before this turns down.

107 Industrial Production
Could be turning up again, if not expect rally to fail.

115 Renko
Nothing but strength.
 !
203 OBV
OBV is still with market and new break out of consolidating range. Bullish.
 !
207 VIX
VIX should bounce about this red line for a while but very bullish for now, could even head in to a new range.

209 VIX Evaluator
Nothing but strength.
 !
211 S&P500 over 50 day
Now over 73.4% stocks are above their 50day MA, slightly down from last week 76%. Strength.

213 Green Arrow
Only put new money to work when I draw a green arrow.
Still rising.


301 NASDAQ Summation
After a little blip, nothing but strength here.

303 Aggressive Defensive
Very aggressive.

305 Consumer Bonds vs Equities
Bonds drop, but consumer does not react. Could be a bit of fear returns.

307 Bond Direction
Strength in bonds indicates overall market caution. .

309 Sectors
Its all about tech as the Nasdaq sweeps ahead.

311 Nations
International gains interest as U.S. market looks overbought, Germany marches ahead.

313 Major sectors
Only emerging markets are doing better than U.S. equities. As I mentioned last week, gold unable to rally in face of strong market.


! = Pay attention this chart is important this week.


What I Find Interesting
The Economist has long used an index to compare the purchasing power of currencies using local prices of Big Macs. In July, Nomura introduced its own index using the iPhone 6S. They clash. In the countries shown, Big Macs cost less than in the U.S. at today’s exchange rates, which indicates their currencies are undervalued. But iPhones cost more abroad, indicating those same currencies are overvalued.

By contrasting the two "indexes" you get a sort of index of disparity, where there is very high poverty, but an elite ruling class you see the biggest disparity in the two indexes. Russia, Brazil and Mexico lead in these areas.




What Works Now
Emerging Markets -- The Vanguard Emerging Market ETF (ticker:VWO)

or PowerShares RAFI Emerging Market Index. (Ticker: PXH)

or for a single stock consider materials giant BHP Billiton (ticker: BHP)

Canadian pipeline company Veresen (Ticker: VSN tsx exchange)


What I Think
I think that was a bit of a surprise, the normal cycle of pull back and move forward was short circuited this week as the US jobs report was strong than expected. Again fundamentals trump technical indicators. This market is strong and resilient and you had hints of that in the OBV and 52week High Low charts that have remained strong for weeks now. As a I said a few weeks ago, when the market is this strong, long equities is the only game in town.




You can learn more about my indicators by visiting the CME4PIF school by clicking here.

Don't squint, All graphics can be enlarged by click on them.

Read My Disclaimer Here